Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
